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Helios Research

What the Helios witness measures, written down as it is measured: the day call and its record on our own price tape, what the dealer-gamma structure has meant at the hour scale, the reads we retired and why, and the hypotheses we pre-register before testing them forward. Every number here comes from a court that was run on recorded data; nothing is tuned after the fact. A weekly witness note is added every Friday after the close.

• Witness week ending 2026-11-06: the day call, session by session · 2026-11-06 · witness note
  6 right, 0 wrong, 0 push this week on the 10:30 day call, graded close vs open on our own minute bars; season record 90.9% of 33 called sessions.
• The hour read, rule v2: the desk's state on the day call's side · 2026-11-03 · rule change, graded forward
  From November 3 the hour read speaks when the trading desk's own state sits on the gated day call's side, and says WAIT otherwise. On the tape that cell went with the call 72% of the time at 60 minutes (+12.5 bp) and 80% at two hours, 2,700 minutes on 14 symbol-days, both halves above the bar.
• The day call, rule v2: a call stands only with the structure · 2026-11-02 · rule change, graded forward
  From November 3 the 10:30 call is withheld when the dealer structure disagrees with it. On every called session since August 24 the call was right 90.6% of the time with the structure on its side and 55.0% without it. The ungated history stays on the record.
• Witness week ending 2026-10-30: the day call, session by session · 2026-10-30 · witness note
  4 right, 1 wrong, 0 push this week on the 10:30 day call, graded close vs open on our own minute bars; season record 80.4% of 51 called sessions.
• The day call: 82% at the close, and what it does not claim · 2026-10-27 · graded, live
  The 10:30 ET day call has landed the close on its side of the open in 82% of 50 called sessions since Aug 14 (strong calls 92% of 36). The call names the side of the close, not the path.
• How Helios grades itself · 2026-10-27 · protocol
  Every read is stamped when it is made, graded forward on our own price tape, and held to a two-half test before and after it reaches members. The protocol, written down.
• What dealer gamma means at the hour scale · 2026-10-27 · graded, live
  The hour read speaks in one structure state and is silent in every other. In that state the next hour went with the day call 62% of the time and 68% at two hours, on 23 symbol-days. Walls, momentum and the magnet did not predict the hour.
• Open hypotheses, pre-registered · 2026-10-27 · pre-registered
  The reads under test now, registered before their forward windows close. None of these is on the member screen. Results will be posted here when the window ends, whichever way they fall.
• Reads we retired, and why · 2026-10-27 · retired reads
  The 15:00 closing read, the pre-open call, the play side and the continuation cells were each graded on the tape and withdrawn. This note keeps the scores on the record.
• Witness week ending 2026-10-23: the day call, session by session · 2026-10-23 · witness note
  5 right, 2 wrong, 0 push this week on the 10:30 day call, graded close vs open on our own minute bars; season record 82.0% of 50 called sessions.

Educational only — not financial advice. Options trading involves substantial risk.