helios.markets All editions Research Track record

Morning Market Intel · Monday, October 26, 2026 · 08:30 ET

Net liquidity stands at $5801 bn with overnight reverse repo at $0 bn and a four-week QT pace of -$1 bn, leaving the posture neutral with no macro tilt. The 3-month/10-year curve sits at +88 bp, the 10-year breakeven at 2.32 pct, and the priced rate path at -93 bp. General collateral runs at 3.88 pct while the dollar index reads 121.40. Initial claims came in at 194k against a four-week figure of 198k. If cash continues leaving the system through balance rebuilding, then available liquidity may tighten even as the stated backdrop remains neutral.

For the broad index, spot at 763.12 sits below the zero-gamma line of 770.9 by 101 bp in negative gamma, with walls at 765.0 and 750.0 and a magnet at 766.0. For the technology proxy, spot at 709.45 sits below the zero-gamma line of 725.6 by 223 bp, also in negative gamma, with walls at 715.0 and 695.0 and a magnet at 700.0. If price holds in negative gamma, then dealer hedging tends to amplify moves rather than dampen them. VIX reads 19.69 with an upward term structure and skew at 152.39, indicating richly bid tail hedges.

Liquidity and the Fed

• Liquidity: net liquidity $5801 bn · overnight reverse repo $0 bn · QT pace over four weeks -$1 bn · posture neutral · tilt no macro tilt (as of 2026-10-23)
• Rates and macro: 3-month/10-year curve +88 bp · 10-year breakeven 2.32 pct · rate path priced -93 bp · general collateral rate 3.88 pct · dollar index 121.40 · initial claims 194k (four-week 198k) (ledger 2026-10-23)

Dealer gamma, premarket

• SPY 763.12, prior close 760.24 on Oct 23 (+0.38 pct) · zero-gamma line 770.9 · spot below the line by 101 bp · negative gamma · walls 765.0 / 750.0 · magnet 766.0
• QQQ 709.45, prior close 704.52 on Oct 23 (+0.70 pct) · zero-gamma line 725.6 · spot below the line by 223 bp · negative gamma · walls 715.0 / 695.0 · magnet 700.0

What the structure implies today

• SPY: below the line at 770.9, dealers are short gamma. They lean with every move, which amplifies the tape. The lower wall at 750.0 is the next floor. Reclaiming 770.9 and holding it returns the tape to a dampened regime.
• QQQ: below the line at 725.6, dealers are short gamma. They lean with every move, which amplifies the tape. The lower wall at 695.0 is the next floor. Reclaiming 725.6 and holding it returns the tape to a dampened regime.

Volatility

• Volatility: VIX 19.69 · 1-day 17.21 · 9-day 18.99 · 3-month 20.65 · term upward · skew 152.39

Numbers as published by the liquidity ledger and the options-positioning feed at 08:30 ET. Structure describes dealer hedging mechanics, not a forecast.

Educational only — not financial advice. Options trading involves substantial risk.