helios.markets All editions Research Track record

Morning Market Intel · Tuesday, October 13, 2026 · 08:30 ET

Net liquidity stands at $5867 bn with overnight reverse repo at $0 bn and a four-week QT pace of -$1 bn, a posture marked neutral with no macro tilt as of 2026-10-12. The 3-month/10-year curve sits at +99 bp, with a 10-year breakeven of 2.33 pct and a priced rate path of -87 bp. General collateral trades at 3.85 pct and the dollar index reads 121.38. Initial claims came in at 197k against a four-week figure of 198k. If background money growth persists, then the medium-term backdrop remains supportive.

The index tracks 777.81 against a prior close of 777.90, holding above its zero-gamma line of 775.8 by 26 bp in positive gamma, with walls at 780.0 and 748.0 and a magnet at 776.0. If spot stays above that line, then dealer flows tend to dampen movement toward the magnet. The technology proxy sits at 740.96, below its zero-gamma line of 754.4 by 178 bp in negative gamma, with walls at 751.0 and 740.0. If spot remains below that line, then dealer flows can amplify moves. VIX reads 15.22 with term upward and skew at 154.34.

Liquidity and the Fed

• Liquidity: net liquidity $5867 bn · overnight reverse repo $0 bn · QT pace over four weeks -$1 bn · posture neutral · tilt no macro tilt (as of 2026-10-12)
• Rates and macro: 3-month/10-year curve +99 bp · 10-year breakeven 2.33 pct · rate path priced -87 bp · general collateral rate 3.85 pct · dollar index 121.38 · initial claims 197k (four-week 198k) (ledger 2026-10-12)

Dealer gamma, premarket

• SPY 777.81, prior close 777.90 on Oct 12 (-0.01 pct) · zero-gamma line 775.8 · spot above the line by 26 bp · positive gamma · walls 780.0 / 748.0 · magnet 776.0
• QQQ 740.96, prior close 746.02 on Oct 12 (-0.68 pct) · zero-gamma line 754.4 · spot below the line by 178 bp · negative gamma · walls 751.0 / 740.0 · magnet 740.0

What the structure implies today

• SPY: above the line at 775.8, dealers are long gamma. They lean against every move, which dampens the tape and pulls price toward the magnet at 776.0. The upper wall at 780.0 is the ceiling while it holds. A break and hold below 775.8 flips the tape to negative gamma, where moves extend.
• QQQ: below the line at 754.4, dealers are short gamma. They lean with every move, which amplifies the tape. The lower wall at 740.0 is the next floor. Reclaiming 754.4 and holding it returns the tape to a dampened regime.

Volatility

• Volatility: VIX 15.22 · 1-day 7.83 · 9-day 11.67 · 3-month 17.93 · term upward · skew 154.34

Numbers as published by the liquidity ledger and the options-positioning feed at 08:30 ET. Structure describes dealer hedging mechanics, not a forecast.

Educational only — not financial advice. Options trading involves substantial risk.